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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.