🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."